The spectre of inflation has been looming large since tariffs were announced in late February, news reports warned about impending price hikes, supply chain disruptions, and the potential for empty shelves. But as weeks unfolded, it didn’t feel like all that much was changing—policy timelines shifted, prices didn’t go up immediately, and retail shelves remained stocked.

What’s really happening with tariff-related inflation, and how are consumers responding?

With so many categories impacted and the effects still unfolding, it’s challenging to understand what’s really happening with tariff-related inflation and consumer response.

But as America’s Rewards App, Fetch knows consumer spending like no one else—because no one else sees the whole picture. By analyzing millions of receipts across virtually every category and retailer, Fetch reveals deeper insights.

Media reports have called the tariff impact “tamer than expected” and characterized the consumer response as “mild.” But perhaps a better word is mindful.

Instead of dramatic stockpiling, consumers have been gradually increasing how often they shop as well as overall weekly spending:

• Shopping trip frequency is up 9% since tariffs were announced.
• Average household spending is up more than 15%—that’s $30 more per week on average, or $1,560 more per year.

Temporary sigh of relief—inflation hasn’t risen as fast as we all feared. But with more tariffs going into effect in June, consumers aren’t out of the woods just yet.

While most categories have not been impacted yet, receipt data shows sharp and immediate price increases in tariff-vulnerable categories starting April 2.

• Unit prices for tariff-vulnerable categories are up 7.8% YOY—nearly 10x non-impacted categories.
• Purchase volume in tariff-vulnerable categories is down -3.10% compared to -0.5% in non-impacted categories.

Consumers quickly traded down or bought less, particularly in non-essential spending categories.

They’re the generations that are most likely to be parents, and they’ve lived through their share of economic crises—it’s no surprise that Millennials and Gen X are changing their shopping habits in the face of impending tariffs:

• Millennials: +11.2% trips, +18.0% weekly spend, +6.1% basket size
• Gen X: +9.5% trips, +15.4% weekly spend, +5.4% basket size

Gen Z didn’t see a dramatic spike in trip frequency, but they’re spending more per trip and buying more, with the biggest increase in basket size:

• Gen Z: +3.6% trips, +10.6% weekly spend, +6.8% basket size

Methodology

Fetch leveraged a continuous 24-month consumer panel, ensuring consistent, reliable comparisons unaffected by user growth fluctuations. Analysis draws from actual SKU-level purchase data from both e-receipts and physical receipts, measuring YOY growth across shopping metrics segmented by product category, time period (pre- and post-tariff), and shopper generation.

About Fetch Finds

Fetch Finds is a consumer insights series from America’s Rewards App, powered by verified receipt data from millions of verified shoppers and billions of transactions. With each report, Fetch reveals real consumer spending trends across all categories, retailers, restaurants, e-commerce, and more.